SMILE

Stochastic Models for the Inference of Life Evolution

The Coalescent in Peripatric Metapopulations

Lambert, A., Ma, C.

Journal of Applied Probability

2015

We consider a dynamic metapopulation involving one large population of size N surrounded by colonies of size epsilon N-N, usually called peripheral isolates in ecology, where N --\textgreater infinity and epsilon(N) --\textgreater 0 in such a way that epsilon N-N --\textgreater infinity. The main population, as well as the colonies, independently send propagules to found new colonies (emigration), and each colony independently, eventually merges with the main population (fusion). Our aim is to study the genealogical history of a finite number of lineages sampled at stationarity in such a metapopulation. We make assumptions on model parameters ensuring that the total outer population has size of the order of N and that each colony has a lifetime of the same order. We prove that under these assumptions, the scaling limit of the genealogical process of a finite sample is a censored coalescent where each lineage can be in one of two states: an inner lineage (belonging to the main population) or an outer lineage (belonging to some peripheral isolate). Lineages change state at constant rate and (only) inner lineages coalesce at constant rate per pair. This two-state censored coalescent is also shown to converge weakly, as the landscape dynamics accelerate, to a time-changed Kingman coalescent.

Bibtex

@article{lambert_coalescent_2015,
Author = {Lambert, Amaury and Ma, Chunhua},
Title = {The {Coalescent} in {Peripatric} {Metapopulations}},
Journal = {Journal of Applied Probability},
Volume = {52},
Number = {2},
Pages = {538--557},
Note = {WOS:000358811700015},
Keywords = {Censored coalescent, genealogical process,
metapopulation, peripatric speciation, peripheral
isolate, population genetics, populations, Weak
convergence},
abstract = {We consider a dynamic metapopulation involving one
large population of size N surrounded by colonies of
size epsilon N-N, usually called peripheral isolates in
ecology, where N --{\textgreater} infinity and
epsilon(N) --{\textgreater} 0 in such a way that
epsilon N-N --{\textgreater} infinity. The main
population, as well as the colonies, independently send
propagules to found new colonies (emigration), and each
colony independently, eventually merges with the main
population (fusion). Our aim is to study the
genealogical history of a finite number of lineages
sampled at stationarity in such a metapopulation. We
make assumptions on model parameters ensuring that the
total outer population has size of the order of N and
that each colony has a lifetime of the same order. We
prove that under these assumptions, the scaling limit
of the genealogical process of a finite sample is a
censored coalescent where each lineage can be in one of
two states: an inner lineage (belonging to the main
population) or an outer lineage (belonging to some
peripheral isolate). Lineages change state at constant
rate and (only) inner lineages coalesce at constant
rate per pair. This two-state censored coalescent is
also shown to converge weakly, as the landscape
dynamics accelerate, to a time-changed Kingman
coalescent.},
doi = {10.1239/jap/1437658614},
issn = {0021-9002},
language = {English},
month = jun,
year = 2015
}

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